Nvidia Share Price Nears Record High: Will the Rally Continue?

Nvidia's stock has surged over 60% since April, recently crossing the $158 mark—its highest level ever. This rally has helped Nvidia reclaim the title of the world’s most valuable company, with a market capitalization of $327 trillion, surpassing Microsoft’s $311 trillion and Apple’s $270 trillion.

What’s Driving Nvidia’s Surge?

Despite early-year concerns over Chinese AI competitor DeepSeek and tariffs announced by Donald Trump, Nvidia’s shares remained resilient. The strong demand for Nvidia’s AI chips, particularly from tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet—who plan to increase capital expenditures to about $350 billion—has driven sales growth. These companies represent over 40% of Nvidia’s revenue.

Investor excitement is also fueled by the recent launch of Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU and the preview of its next-gen Rubin architecture, signaling continued product innovation. Nvidia’s Q1 2025 revenue hit $44.1 billion, a 12% quarterly increase and a 69% rise year-over-year.

Outlook and Risks

Nvidia forecasts second-quarter sales of $45 billion despite China export restrictions, indicating a 50% year-over-year growth. Analysts attribute Nvidia’s market value peak—$3.77 trillion in late June—to strong revenue forecasts and customers pre-buying AI chips ahead of export curbs.

Trading at about 36× forward earnings, Nvidia commands a premium valuation justified by rapid growth, although it remains below its previous 80× peak. Future growth is expected from new Rubin chips, expanding software, and resilient margins. However, geopolitical risks and macroeconomic challenges pose potential threats.

Some analysts warn that competition and high valuations could limit medium-term upside.

Technical Analysis

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investment, notes Nvidia has broken out of a bullish cup-and-handle pattern at $149, indicating strong upward momentum. A pullback is seen as healthy consolidation, with a key breakout above $158.85 likely to trigger a surge toward $175. Traders are advised to watch for volume confirmation to manage risks.

As of July 3, 2025, Nvidia stock trades around $157.34 in pre-market.